Todays Market Analysis

Todays Market Analysis

NATIONAL MARKET UPDATE reports 7.5% more homesellers listed their properties in November 2023 than in November a year ago —the first time newly listed homes posted an annual gain in almost a year and a half.

The Mortgage Bankers Association showed purchase mortgage applications up 35% week-over-week, unadjusted. Refinance applications saw their strongest week in two months, up annually two weeks straight for the first time in two years.

A recent survey from Fannie Mae found that nearly one in four consumers think home prices will fall over the next year. However, experts predict home prices will keep rising nationally for the next five years, just at a more normal pace.



ON A ROLL... Stocks rose for the sixth straight week (something we haven't seen in four years!), as Friday's better-than-expected November jobs report pushed the three major indexes to modest gains. 

Last month the economy added 199,000 jobs, unemployment fell to 3.7%, the labor force grew, and hourly earnings gained a healthy 0.4%. Low weekly jobless claims also pointed to a robust labor market.

The ISM services index showed the dominant sector of our economy still growing, while University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment registered its first gain in five months, as inflation expectations moderated among consumers. 

The week ended with the Dow UP two points, to 36,248; the S&P 500 UP 0.2%, to 4,604; and the Nasdaq UP 0.7%, to 14,404.

Bonds overall ended slightly ahead, the 30-Year UMBS 6.0% UP .15, to $100.27. Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey reported the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate decreased for the sixth straight week. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information.  

DID YOU KNOW… A study by title company First American found that the median homeowner has 38 times the household wealth of a renter, noting that homeownership is “the largest source of total wealth among most households.”



INFLATION, RETAIL SALES, THE FED... The November inflation rate is expected to continue moderating in both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the wholesale Producer Price Index (PPI). Economists forecast Retail Sales to dip in November as the economy slows. Wednesday, the Fed's FOMC Rate Decision should keep rates where they are for now.



Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months. The fed funds rate should stay where it is at this week's meet. After digesting the latest economic data, the futures market no longer sees a rate cut in March, though May still seems likely. Note: In the lower chart, a 1.6% probability of change is a 98.4% probability the rate will stay the same. Current rate is 5.25%-5.50%.


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Phone: 912-297-6829
Dated: December 13th 2023
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